Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 6.817454e-05 0.000081 0.000095 0.000112 0.000130 0.000149 0.000172
2025-03-23 5.160028e-05 0.000069 0.000088 0.000112 0.000141 0.000173 0.000212
2025-03-30 4.188391e-05 0.000060 0.000083 0.000111 0.000147 0.000188 0.000239
2025-04-06 3.336532e-05 0.000052 0.000076 0.000109 0.000150 0.000199 0.000262
2025-04-13 2.915146e-05 0.000049 0.000075 0.000111 0.000159 0.000217 0.000292
2025-04-20 2.328826e-05 0.000042 0.000069 0.000107 0.000158 0.000223 0.000308
2025-04-27 1.967154e-05 0.000038 0.000066 0.000107 0.000162 0.000234 0.000329
2025-05-04 1.670642e-05 0.000035 0.000063 0.000106 0.000166 0.000245 0.000351
2025-05-11 1.516069e-05 0.000034 0.000064 0.000110 0.000175 0.000262 0.000382
2025-05-18 1.325651e-05 0.000032 0.000062 0.000110 0.000181 0.000275 0.000406
2025-05-25 1.067418e-05 0.000028 0.000058 0.000107 0.000179 0.000279 0.000418
2025-06-01 8.900931e-06 0.000025 0.000055 0.000105 0.000181 0.000286 0.000435
2025-06-08 7.389299e-06 0.000023 0.000053 0.000105 0.000185 0.000297 0.000459
2025-06-15 6.283241e-06 0.000022 0.000052 0.000106 0.000191 0.000312 0.000488
2025-06-22 5.109697e-06 0.000020 0.000049 0.000105 0.000193 0.000321 0.000509
2025-06-29 3.977108e-06 0.000017 0.000046 0.000102 0.000194 0.000327 0.000526
2025-07-06 3.495131e-06 0.000017 0.000046 0.000105 0.000202 0.000345 0.000559
2025-07-13 2.570995e-06 0.000014 0.000043 0.000101 0.000199 0.000347 0.000570
2025-07-20 2.048604e-06 0.000013 0.000041 0.000100 0.000202 0.000357 0.000592
2025-07-27 1.629940e-06 0.000012 0.000040 0.000100 0.000205 0.000367 0.000615
2025-08-03 1.456066e-06 0.000012 0.000040 0.000103 0.000214 0.000386 0.000651
2025-08-10 1.197770e-06 0.000011 0.000040 0.000104 0.000220 0.000399 0.000679
2025-08-17 8.207249e-07 0.000009 0.000037 0.000100 0.000217 0.000401 0.000689